Mexico Inflation Accelerates the Most in Three Years
(Update2)

By Jens Erik Gould and Hugh Collins

May 8 (Bloomberg) -- Mexico's annual inflation accelerated at the fastest pace in almost three years last month, led by costs for housing and foods such as tomatoes and chicken.

Consumer prices rose 4.55 percent from a year earlier in April and 0.23 percent from a month earlier, the central bank said today. The figures were in line with analysts' forecasts.

The inflation data may help cement expectations that the central bank won't change its benchmark lending rate this year. Policy makers kept the rate unchanged at 7.5 percent for a sixth month last week, balancing their forecast for above- target inflation against concerns the economy is slowing.

``I don't think today's data changed a lot for monetary policy,'' said Bartosz Pawlowski, an economist with TD Securities in London. ``Inflation is clearly going toward 5 percent, but that's something the central bank anticipated.''

Core inflation, which excludes some food and energy costs, was 0.41 percent in April. The annual inflation rate in April was the highest since May 2005.

Mexico's bonds fell, pushing up the yield on benchmark securities to the highest in a week, after the central bank report. The yield on the government's 10 percent bond due December 2024 rose 2 basis points, or 0.02 percentage point, to 7.98 percent at 10:33 a.m. New York time. The price fell 0.2 centavo to 118.5 centavos per peso, according to Santander.

Banamex Survey

A survey of economists by Citigroup Inc.'s Banamex unit earlier this week predicted the central bank would keep its rate steady this year, reversing an earlier forecast for a cut in September. Analysts also raised their 2008 inflation forecast to 4.2 percent from 4 percent.

For April, analysts had expected a monthly inflation rate of 0.25 percent and an annual rate of 4.57 percent, according to the median estimates compiled by Bloomberg. The central bank targets inflation of no more than 4 percent annually.

Food prices rose 5.67 percent on an annual basis, driven by higher costs for tomatoes, chicken, avocados and bananas, the bank said. Steeper costs for housing and air transport helped boost the annual inflation in services to 4.1 percent, the bank said.

``We continue to see pressure from food and fuel, which are closely related to international prices,'' said Alfredo Coutino, senior economist for Latin America at Moody's Economy.com in West Chester, Pennsylvania.

World Bank President Robert Zoellick said in a Mexico City speech yesterday that global food prices would remain above 2004 levels through 2015, driven by low food stocks and rising demand from China and India.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jens Erik Gould in Mexico City at jgould9@bloomberg.net; Hugh Collins in Mexico City at Hcollins8@bloomberg.net