South Florida's economy under water    Cargo tonnage is down at the Port of Miami and Port Everglades, above. In addition trade credit is tight, and imports have been hobbled by the construction slump. But exports to Latin America should be a bright spot for the coming year. Experts share grim outlook on economy BY SCOTT ANDRON AND MIAMI HERALD STAFF sandron@MiamiHerald.com When Will This Horror Show Come to an End? -- the title of a recent report by Wachovia Corp. economists -- aptly summarizes what's on many South Floridians' minds these days.   The deep downturn in the housing market, rampant home foreclosures, rising unemployment, collapsing banks -- and especially the credit crunch -- have most people feeling a bit off-balance.   ''The situation is unprecedented,'' said David Denslow, an economist at the University of Florida. ``Our ordinary models don't explain what's going on. All those ordinary models aren't working, and now everybody is groping. No one knows what's really salient.''   But this much seems clear: 2009 will be a difficult year.   Here's a sector-by-sector look at how major drivers of the South Florida economy are expected to fare this year:   HOUSING   Falling home prices expected   In many ways, the region's economic woes started a few years ago with the housing boom.   From 2002 to 2006, fueled by low interest rates and easy credit, the median home price in Miami-Dade doubled, from $185,000 to $375,000. Thousands of people found work building huge condo towers and subdivisions, and their prosperity spread throughout the economy.   Then, last year, the dream became a nightmare. Home prices had risen far beyond most people's ability to buy, forcing down demand. Speculators were buying up condos at prices so high that no landlord could make money renting them.   Last year homes prices were back down to 2003 levels, foreclosures began to skyrocket and credit markets slowed and then seized up almost entirely.   Now, most experts think South Florida home and condominium prices will continue to fall in 2009, but probably not as fast as in 2008.   ''2008 is probably the worst we will see,'' said Jack Winston, principal at Goodkin Consulting in Miami, ``but we still have a hangover going into 2009 and I don't think we'll start to get rid of that headache until the end of the year.''   For the housing market to recover, three areas need a remedy, said Winston:   • The oversupply of single-family homes and condos -- fueled by overbuilding but mostly by foreclosures -- must be reduced so home prices stabilize.   • Credit markets must begin easing so banks start lending again.   • The employment situation must brighten.   It's a tall order and it means 2010 -- not 2009 -- will be the start of a turnaround, Winston said.   ''We are in a vicious cycle,'' said Brad Hunter of Metrostudy, a real estate consultancy. ``The economy went into the tank because of the housing market; now the economy is feeding that weakness into the housing market.''   Hunter, however, had one bit of bright news for this year: ``There are going to be opportunities to buy homes at very, very good prices this year... excellent deals.''   FINANCE   Banks await bailout money   After real estate, banking was among the first areas of the economy to be hit by the recession. And it has become one of the most shell-shocked.   Two top national players that are big in Florida -- Wachovia and Washington Mutual -- were acquired by Wells Fargo and JPMorgan Chase, respectively, amid the 2008 financial meltdown.   Meanwhile, the largest Florida-based financial institution, BankUnited Financial of Coral Gables, is scrambling for fresh capital to help work through a mountain of troubled mortgages.   ''We've got some major changes -- big-picture things -- going on here in Florida,'' said Kenneth Thomas, a Miami-based banking consultant and economist, who estimates Florida has a disproportionate share of problem banks.